Tuesday 17 January 2012

2112: My Predictions

I recently read an article on the BBC with 20 predictions for the next hundred years. Many were ridiculous and included synthetic telepathy, immortality, etc. But some hit the spot: Nuclear Fusion will probably be (finally) understood. Nanotechnology may move into the blood stream and help out the fight against diseases. And Antarctica certainly could become 'open for business' when the current ban on mining expires in 2059.

So can I do any better? Well, I'll give it a go:

1) Synthetic organs?
To your grandchildren, the idea of giving blood or donating an organ will probably seem preposterous. We are already moving closer to the use of artificial blood in patients, and stem cells can already be used to create specific tissues such as windpipes. The next step is to make these methods safer and cheaper than the current medical procedures.

2) A world without oil?
At some point in the next century, we will hit peak oil. Prices will be pushed up higher and higher. More wars will be fought over the black stuff. As with anything, the transition to a new, clean civilisation will be hard. And  finally burning our way through the earth's entire supply of liquid dead dinosaurs will have obvious consequences...

3) Global Warming?
The predictions vary from a modest 2 degrees to a runaway 6 degrees, or from 20cm sea level rise to 60cm. What we do know, though, is that it will happen. Even if we stopped burning oil yesterday models suggest 2 degrees of warming is inevitable. And that will have disastrous consequences for both the worlds people and organisms.

4) Digital Laziness?
As the retail market slowly migrates from the high street to the internet, so people may also gradually be sucked online. With technology controlling nearly every service from farming and mining to teaching and transport, more and more jobs will also shift onto the internet. Its possible that we could survive without ever leaving the house; couch potatoes in front of wall-sized ultra high-definition screens.

5)10 Billion?
Just as with oil, the human population must reach a plateau in the next century. We only have a limited land surface on which to cultivate crops and food, and as developing countries get a taste for land-intensive foods such as beef that population limit shrinks. Water is another limiting factor: Global warming could shift rainfall patterns, adding to our consumption of groundwater supplies. If human population rises beyond the sustainable limit, famine and drought could wipe out millions. But, as always, technology could be our saviour; generating fresh water from the ocean or food from petri dishes.

6) Moore's law breaks?
As circuits shrink, they get closer and closer to the fundamental limits set by atoms. Even today processor companies are struggling to meet the exponential increase predicted in 1965. Quantum computing is the next step, but will it be developed in time to stop the technical age from stalling?

7) Space tourism boom?
As Virgin Galactic gets ready to send its first paying customers into space, the possibilities for space tourism seem endless. Is it not inconceivable that the private sector, rather than the worlds governments, could send men back to the moon first? Could we, by auctioning seats on a mission to Mars, pay for humanity's next great exploration?

8) GM?
Genetic research may be widely hated by the uninformed, but no-one can argue it doesn't have the potential for some amazing things. Just as the green revolution of the 50s quadrupled grain harvests, so can genetic research can do the same again by 2112. Not only can we manufacture crops that produce much larger yields, we could also grow 'superfoods' that provide all the required nutrients and vitamins we need to stay healthy.

9) No large mammals outside of reserves?
As human populations boom and global warming hits, unprotected land such as in the Amazon will quickly be developed for food, mining or settlement. This may lead to one of the biggest extinctions of wild organisms ever seen, especially large mammals. But if science and conservation remain important, there is hope that huge national parks can act as refuges for the last remaining species.

10) Alien Life?
Since 1996 exoplanet research has gone from strength to strength. By 2112 we will have discovered millions of planets circling other stars. Proposed missions such as TPF and Darwin are already capable of looking for the signs of life on these exoplanets, such as by searching for ozone, water and methane in the atmosphere. That moment when we finally find another planet with life at its surface will shift the anthropocentric view of humanity, just as the moon landings did in 1969.


11) We'll all be dead....?
Asteroid, virus, zombies? There have been many science fiction plots predicting the end of days, but nothing humans have experienced for 20,000 years has come close to wiping us off the face of the Earth. And with amazing innovations in technology certain to come, we stand a better chance of surviving than ever before.